Keep Your System Tuned Up!
For you traders that really want to keep your Forex trading strategies tuned up, back testing is a must. You can learn a lot from your performance ups and downs of previous years. Of course, the market dictates most of the activity, but your program and personal actions, at crucial times, could be the difference between a healthy account and a margin call.
Here’s the best I can do for you on a definition of back testing. It’s a method of simulation of your relevant past Fx currency trading data in order to test it’s effectiveness. Most technical strategies are static and unless they are re-programmed, will operate in the same manner going forward as they did in the past. Back-testing will show these tendencies and help you correct them. We all know that assuming that the same things that happened in the past will happen in the future, is a basis for trouble.
I believe that so much emphasis is placed on exotic theories that back testing is sometimes overlooked. Take some time to work on these back test areas, and you’ll see a noticeable difference in your currency trading performance.
1) Entries and exits: This is probably the easiest area to back test. You can follow the previous market performance to see if you’re jumping the gun or bailing out too early.
2) Leverage and cash management: Knowing when to use your margin to best advantage. It’s easy to trace the times when you were over-leveraged at crucial opportunities and didn’t have the cushion to make the most money. Your money model can be tested to see when you reach certain trigger points…and how your Forex trading strategy worked.
3) Your trading psychology: This is sometimes the hardest pill to swallow. Back testing will show you your mental strengths and weaknesses. Do you let your emotions get out of hand? Are you too aggressive or too timid? Are you too easily influenced by what others think? As you back test, place a high priority on studying yourself, as well as your Fx trade program.
When you back test your patterns, it’s much easier to see areas of improvement that need to be undertaken. Without back testing, you’re liable to develop a crisis of confidence in yourself and your Forex market trading system. When you start to lose confidence, you begin wholesale tinkering throughout your trading program. This is a bad mistake and will cause you to lose money. Back testing allows you to pinpoint areas of improvement, without throwing the baby out with the bathwater.